We have no Plan B if Ukraine falls, says Estonia
Estonia identifies itself as a frontline state, being a member of NATO, where its border guards vigilantly observe the Russian stronghold of Ivangorod across the Narva River. Estonia, a small Baltic nation that was once part of the Soviet Union, firmly believes that when the conflict in Ukraine concludes, President Vladimir Putin will shift his focus towards the Baltic states, with the intention of reclaiming nations like Estonia under Moscow's authority. In order to prevent such scenario, the Estonian government has allocated significant funds and provided weaponry to support Ukraine's war efforts, contributing almost 1% of its GDP to Kyiv. «If every NATO member nation were to engage in this action» asserts Estonia's resolute Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, «Ukraine would emerge victorious». However, Ukraine is not achieving victory.
Ukraine is facing significant challenges in defending itself against the overwhelming might of Russian military capabilities, including artillery, ammunition, air defenses, and men. The Russian attacks, which use glide bombs and large-scale infantry assaults, are frequently very dangerous and may be considered almost suicidal. I inquired of Prime Minister Kallas about Estonia's contingency plan in the event that Ukraine is defeated in this conflict and Russia's invasion finally triumphs. «We do not have an alternative strategy in case of a Russian victory» she responds, «because that would divert our attention from our primary objective» - assisting Ukraine in repelling the Russian invasion. «We should resist succumbing to pessimism». The triumph in Ukraine extends beyond mere territorial gains. Ukraine's accession to NATO, even if it does not include certain territories, would still be considered a triumph since it would result in Ukraine becoming under the protection and influence of NATO.
Kaja Kallas is a subject of controversy. She is hardly the first national leader to have more popularity internationally than domestically. As a Soviet citizen, she was born and her mother and grandparents were forcefully sent to Siberia. Aged 46 and assuming the position of prime minister in 2021, she is seen as one of the most assertive leaders within Nato in countering the Kremlin's aspirations in Europe. Some individuals in the White House are concerned that her actions may lead to a direct confrontation between the West and Moscow.
Existential threat from Russia
Some Estonians are displeased with the increase in taxes to fund their contribution to Ukraine's defense. However, Kaja Kallas desires for the Western nations to become aware of what she perceives as a significant and immediate danger posed by a recently assertive Russia. «Russia aims to instill fear in our societies» - she asserts, sitting in the cabinet office at Estonia's counterpart to 10 Downing Street, with a view of the majestic spires and historic fortress walls of Tallinn's Old Town. «Various hybrid attacks are observed across multiple regions of the European Union» Hybrid assaults, often referred to as sub-threshold or grey zone warfare, are aggressive operations believed to be conducted by an opponent like Russia, in which no gunfire is required involved, no casualties occur, and assigning guilt is frequently difficult - still, the resulting harm may be significant.
An unresolved instance would be the enigmatic subaquatic detonations that destroyed the Nordstream gas pipelines under the Baltic Sea in 2022. Another instance is the current accusation of Russian electronic meddling in planes that come near its exclave of Kaliningrad on the Baltic coast. The recent annual report of Estonia's internal security agency, Kapo, highlights an incident from last fall when several schools in Estonia and other Baltic nations received emails falsely reporting the presence of explosives in their facilities. The research states that these threats are intended to induce psychological and emotional stress by specifically targeting the most susceptible individuals, so endangering the well-being of youngsters.
Denial is key to strategy
What is the level of vulnerability of Estonia to a potential future invasion by Russia? «In order to prevent a war, we must make preparations» said a Nato officer, speaking at the periphery of Nato's Exercise Steadfast Defender. In Estonia's southern border with Latvia, antiquated British Challenger 2 tanks and other armored vehicles from the 1980s traverse fields, emitting engine fumes into the pristine spring air. The Western alliance was jolted into awareness by Russia's complete and extensive military intervention in Ukraine in February 2022. The incident prompted Nato leaders to recognize the need of substantially strengthening their military deployment on the eastern border of Europe in order to effectively prevent any potential Russian aggression. Currently, the United Kingdom is in charge of a combat group consisting of 1,200 personnel stationed in Tapa, a town located in northern Estonia. This battle group is comprised of tanks, infantry, artillery, drones, and a company of France's highly skilled mountain troops. «The primary component of this strategy of denial» asserts Brigadier Giles Harris, who oversees UK troops in this region, «is to ensure that we have an adequate buildup of forces in a timely manner to establish a stronger deterrent effect». I emphasize that a contingent of 1,200 soldiers may not seem significant, considering the crucial lesson learned from the ongoing battle in Ukraine, which is the importance of numerical superiority.
Despite Russia's potential shortcomings in tactics and equipment, its ability to deploy far larger numbers of troops and munitions typically allows it to overpower Ukraine's defensive capabilities. «Your assertion that a single battle group is insufficient would have been valid in the past» - he responds. «However, our new strategies involve strengthening our forces at the level of a brigade, consisting of 3,000 to 5,000 troops, in preparation for a potential, albeit limited, military intervention by Russia». «We currently have a highly prepared military unit in the UK, ready to deploy heavier forces promptly. This represents a significant and transformative improvement compared to our previous state». The British military stationed in Tapa, with their Estonian counterparts, are closely monitoring the developments in Ukraine. «According to Brigadier Harris, it provides insight into the strategic positioning of Russian military forces», «Our training in Estonia is now primarily focused on preparing for a specific mission to combat the adversary we observe in the southern region, specifically Ukraine».
Ultimately, I ask if the British commander, seeing Ukraine's present challenges mostly stemming from a lack of ammunition and men, is confident in the effective defense against a potential Russian invasion in Estonia. «Certainly» - he responds, without any doubt. «Currently, the situation is more pronounced than it has ever been in the past».
